by Natasha Lair
Last updated: 8:05 AM ET, Thu February 5, 2026
Advance airline bookings from Canada to the U.S. are trending downward for March 2026, according to new analysis from Cirium.
Using advance booking data for future travel, Cirium compared bookings for March 2026 against March 2025 across all fare classes.
According to Cirium, the analysis looks at bookings made during two comparable periods: October 7 to January 31 in both 2024–25 and 2025–26.
The study found that, across Vancouver, Regina, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, and Halifax, bookings to U.S. destinations are down 15.16% year over year.
The decline is more pronounced for Florida-bound travel.
Bookings from Canadian cities to Florida destinations, including Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Orlando, Miami, Sarasota, Tampa and Fort Myers, are down 23.34% compared to the same period last year.
Cirium notes that the data reflects actual bookings already made for future travel but is drawn from third-party sources, primarily online travel agencies and global distribution systems used by airlines and travel advisors. The data does not include direct airline bookings, and some airlines do not sell inventory through those channels.
As a result, Cirium says that the findings should be viewed as directional rather than definitive.
“Only the airlines know with any certainty what their bookings look like,” the company said, noting that the analysis represents a sample rather than a complete picture of total demand.
Despite those limitations, Cirium says the sample size is statistically significant and provides an early indicator of shifting travel patterns for the upcoming spring travel period.
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