Caribbean tourism could begin to recover in the early part of next year, tourism and medical experts say. But it also could take considerably longer if a vaccine isn't found soon.
The Caribbean Tourism Organization held a zoom chat on Wednesday that featured economic, medical and tourism experts with a variety of takes on the situation.
Caroline Bremner of Euromonitor International say scientists tell her group that the best-case scenario for a vaccine is in early 2021. Tourism in the Caribbean could reach 2019 levels by 2022, but it also could take four or even five years for that to happen, she said.
Bremner said the Asia Pacific region is bouncing back reasonably well, and that travellers definitely want to visit Western Europe and North America when it's safe.
She also had some encouraging news for the Caribbean, saying that hotel searches are looking promising. Again, however, finding a vaccine could be key.
Travel habits also could change. A survey of travellers found that 22% of those surveyed feel they'll never go back to the type of international travel they used to engage in.
Bremner and other panelists said future visitors to world destinations will be looking for more sustainable travel.
Clive Landis, a professor and vaccine expert at the University of the West Indies, said there are around 250 vaccines in the pipeline now, and that many are in the third and final phase of testing.
The most optimistic experts think a vaccine could be available by the end of this year, but most feel sometime in 2021 is more likely, he said.
He also noted there are some people in the world reluctant to take a vaccine, and that Twitter bots and Russian trolls are helping drive the anti-vaccine debate.
Alejandro Varela of the United Nations World Tourism Organization said 115 countries around the world (53%) have re-opened for tourism, and that 28 new countries joined that list in July.
Still, that leaves 93 destinations around the globe with borders that remain closed, he said.
Jeremy Sampson, CEO of The Travel Foundation, said the COVID-19 pandemic is a "once in a lifetime" chance to change the way we travel. He, too, talked about the importance of sustainable travel and the quality of the travel experience.
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