Rising oil prices in the weeks since the start of the conflict in Iran are touching nearly every segment of travel, including the cruise industry.
Cruise lines often hedge fuel costs to avoid negative consequences due to dramatic spikes, such as the current 35 percent jump in oil costs since war broke out in the Middle East at the end of February.
However, Carnival Cruise Line reports no long-term net benefit in hedging and is therefore most likely to feel this spring's surge in fuel prices.
"Our best hedge against fuel costs is to use less, so we focus on using less fuel in the first place," Carnival said in an e-mailed statement to Reuters. "We've cut our fuel use by 18 percent since 2011 despite increasing capacity by roughly 38 percent during that time."
Citing the latest company filings, Reuters reports that a 10 percent change in fuel cost per metric ton would reduce Carnival's 2026 net income by a whopping $145 million, compared with $57 million for Royal Caribbean and roughly $90 million for Norwegian Cruise Line.
CFRA analyst Alex Fasciano told the news outlet that "during 2022's oil spike, Carnival's fuel costs rose more rapidly than its peers."
"Carnival also owns a larger fleet, meaning the level of consumption is also higher than their counterparts," added Fasciano.
While Carnival has had the highest fuel costs relative to revenue in three of the last four years, when compared to Royal Caribbean and Norwegian, its 6.8 percent figure for 2025 was significantly lower than 17.7 percent from when the Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022.
Cruise lines will likely paint a clearer picture of the fuel costs' impact on their bottom lines when they release first-quarter earnings results in the coming days and weeks.
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