With the stroke of a pen, President Biden could add several million international visitors to the U.S this year.
That's the contention of the U.S. Travel Association, which estimates that removing the pre-departure COVID testing requirement would result in 5.4 million more international visitors in 2022.
Major source markets Canada, Mexico and the UK are among a long list of countries that have dropped pre-departure testing for visitors arriving by air. But the U.S., despite taking what many have seen as a more lax approach to public health measures during the pandemic, stubbornly maintains the requirement, which can be costly and difficult to obtain in some countries.
A survey of travellers from six source markets found that 54% say pre-departure testing has added uncertainty due to the potential for trip cancellation. And 71% say they will prioritize travelling to destinations that don't have cumbersome entry requirements.
Roger Dow, president of the U.S. Travel Association, says that from November 2021 when America reopened its borders, the numbers keep improving.
"If we can just get one more thing done," Dow said, referring to pre-departure testing.
Noting that pre-departure testing is not required at land borders, Dow said: "is COVID really so smart that it attacks people in planes but not in cars? There's just no logic here. "
The USTA was at the White House last week to plead its case, and Dow says members of the COVID Task Force were receptive to the message.
That obstacle to U.S. visitation is a quick fix and will likely be removed soon. But the safety of visitors amidst America's plague of gun violence is much more complicated.
A UK journalist said surveys of readers of his publication reveal that there is a "definite tilt" with safety a growing concern.
U.S. travel industry officials acknowledge the problem, but realistically there's little they can do other than point out to legislators the negative impact of gun violence on travel decisions.
"It is a serious problem. If we don't do something about it, it's going to hurt tourism," Dow said.
"Eighty percent of Americans are saying 'do something,' whether it's background checks or age restrictions. The government needs to do something and make it real."
Dow said the U.S. is also experiencing a mental health crisis, exacerbated by the pandemic, which is contributing to the problem of gun violence. "We need to address this too," Dow added.
Despite these issues and a struggle to restaff post-pandemic - Dow says there are 1.5 million open jobs in the tourism and hospitality sector - he believes a massive pent-up demand for travel will see the U.S. return to pre-pandemic visitor levels quickly.
"It's going to come back faster than you can believe," he said.
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