by Natasha Lair
Last updated: 11:30 AM ET, Thu April 16, 2026
The pressure building across Europe’s travel sector is no longer theoretical.
New reporting from CBC News suggests the region’s aviation system could be heading into a far more disruptive phase, as a prolonged Middle East conflict drives up fuel prices and threatens supply.
According to the outlet, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned that Europe may have “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left if key supply routes remain blocked. He also cautioned that flight cancellations could begin “soon” if the situation doesn’t improve.
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That warning marks a significant escalation from earlier concerns about rising costs and operational strain, and points to a scenario where availability, not just price, becomes the central issue.
Industry voices say this is different from past crises.
“We haven’t seen nothing yet,” John Gradek, a faculty lecturer in aviation management at McGill University, told CBC. He described the current situation as the “worst crisis we’ve had in aviation, ever,” noting that unlike 9/11 or COVID-19, fuel supply itself is now in question.
“And without fuel, you can’t fly.”
The concern stems from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments, and from damage to refining capacity in the region.
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Experts say even if the route reopens, restoring supply won’t be immediate.
That uncertainty is beginning to shape how - and whether - trips are planned.
“It’s a mad world,” Winnipeg-based tourism consultant Max Johnson told CBC. “Which goes to the point of: Should we plan? And I think the answer to this is absolutely.”
Prices were already rising — now predictability is the problem
Even before the latest escalation, airfare was trending upward.
Demand has remained strong, but behaviour is shifting.
According to Flight Centre Canada’s Amra Durakovic, some travellers are booking as far as six months in advance to lock in pricing. Others are holding off, hoping fares will drop, a strategy described as risky in the current environment.
What this means for the industry
For airlines, the immediate challenge is cost. Fuel is one of the largest operating expenses, and a sustained spike, combined with a limited supply, leaves little room to absorb increases.
Planning a European itinerary now comes with added uncertainty around pricing, routing and even whether flights will operate as scheduled.
And as Gradek pointed out, the industry is entering territory it hasn’t faced before - one where demand is strong, but the ability to meet it is no longer guaranteed.
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