by Jen Mallia
Last updated: 8:25 AM ET, Tue May 12, 2026
Despite the numbers from Statistics Canada reporting fewer Canadians making cross-border trips, the U.S. Travel Association released a forecast that shows they believe that trend will reverse in the coming year.
The recently released U.S. Travel Forecast predicts the slump the country has seen in terms of international tourists — especially Canadian tourists — will turn around beginning this year.
Total travel spending is forecast to reach $1.37 trillion in 2026 and $1.42 trillion in 2027 (inflation-adjusted). Most of that money (87 percent) is projected to come from domestic travel, but the organization is still banking on international travel to generate what the report indicates is an “essential part of the U.S. economy.”
The predictions are based on Tourism Economics’ travel forecasting model. The model shows a modest 6.4% year over year growth in the number of Canadians visiting the U.S. for 2026, growing steadily each year to 101 percent of 2019 pre-pandemic numbers by 2030.
A new study from the Travel Health Insurance Association of Canada (THIA) shows a sharp generational divide when it comes to willingness to travel across the border, a shift that may work in favour of the American tourism industry. According to THIA’s 2026 Smart Traveller Survey, 45 percent of Gen Z Canadians say they’re likely to travel to the U.S. next year, compared to just 8 percent of Boomers. Among Canadians who are travelling this year, nearly two‑thirds (61 percent) of Gen Z say the U.S. is on their itinerary, far ahead of older generations including Millennials (48 percent), Gen X (28 percent), and Boomers (14 percent).
Meanwhile, StatsCan returning Canadian resident data has shown year over year numbers consistently falling since the U.S. President threatened to annex Canada, introduced trade tariffs and instituted anti-foreigner and anti-trans policies many Canadians find objectionable, leading to a boycott of U.S. travel. In March, 2026, travel by Canadian residents was down 7.6% when compared to 2025, and significantly more when compared with pre-boycott 2024 numbers.
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