Are StatCan Travel Numbers the Shape of Things to Come?

by Jen Mallia
Last updated: 2:45 PM ET, Mon March 10, 2025

With much of the news being dominated by the fracturing relationship between Canada and the United States, it won’t come as a shock to learn that travel between the two nations was down in February. Is the downturn indicative of a coming travel slump?

According to Statistics Canada, air travel to Canada by U.S. residents fell slightly from the February 2024 numbers (-1.3%). Crossings in automobiles over our border by U.S. residents were down by 7.9%

When it comes to Canadian residents returning home from the U.S. the data are more dramatic. The numbers, as measured by the Canadian Border Services Agency, show a 13.1% decline in air passenger traffic compared with the same month last year. Residents returning by air overall was down only 2.4%.

Returning Canadian residents by auto showed what Statistics Canada calls “a steep decline” of 23%.

In a LinkedIn post, Avery Campbell, ACTA Director, Advocacy & Industry Relations, predicts that these data are the precursor to a sharper decline. “Many travellers committed to flights long before recent events influenced travel choices keeping current air travel numbers steady,” he says. “In contrast, land travel trends suggest a higher sensitivity and flexibility among travellers. We should expect air travel figures to reflect this shift more dramatically in the coming months.”

ACTA is holding a town hall meeting with Campbell on March 11. You can register Now for the ACTA Town Hall.

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