by Mia Taylor
Last updated: 4:20 PM ET, Tue September 1, 2026
As recent heatwaves, flash floods, and mudslides worldwide have made clear, climate change is not a hoax. Its realities are proving serious and deadly, as scientists predicted.
And after a summer marked by successive heatwaves and temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit across Europe, traveler perceptions about the climate in their favorite destinations on the continent are shifting.
A new analysis conducted by The Data Appeal Company / Almaviva Group shows that, while Mediterranean destinations remain strongly associated with “favorable summer climates,” repeated and unexpected heat is beginning to challenge public perception in some cases.
Translation: Italy, Spain, Portugal, France and Greece, countries long beloved by travelers, may be losing some of their appeal as summer vacation destinations.
The Data Appeal Company’s study tracked traveler opinion related to the five popular South Mediterranean countries using what it calls a “Perception of Climate Index,” or PCI. The PCI rates travelers’ perceptions of a country’s climate. PCI scores range from 0 to 100, with 100 being the most favorable perception of climate among travelers and 0 being the worst. The study examined traveler opinions from 2023 through summer 2026, in order to identify shifts in perceptions of destinations against officially recorded heatwave events.
The high-level takeaway from this effort is that repeated, prolonged heatwaves are beginning to affect how travelers’ perceive some destinations. But the change in opinion is not unilateral across all five countries studied.
Here are five key findings that emerged from the analysis.
Heatwaves still cause mostly short-term perception shocks among travelers, but that’s changing.
Across Mediterranean destinations, the PCI (or traveler's perception of climate) generally drops during heatwaves and rebounds once temperatures normalize. As of 2026, however, that rebound in perception is no longer a given.
“Repeated, early and prolonged episodes are increasingly capable of extending beyond temporary discomfort and influencing broader perceptions of summer climate conditions,” says the report.
France is the clearest warning signal. The country's average PCI among travelers was 77.2 between May and July 2026, well below Portugal (93.5), Italy (91.6), Spain (90.4) and Greece (89.9).
“Repeated and atypical heat early in the season, particularly during 2026 heatwaves, appears to be creating the strongest signs yet of a potential deterioration in climate appeal,” says the report.
Rome, Italy in fall (Photo Credit: Courtesy AdobeStock)
Italy is beginning to show signs of a cumulative effect.
After reaching a very positive 92.2 PCI average in summer 2025 among traveler opinion and perception, Italy’s May–July 2026 PCI stands -0.9 points lower than in the equivalent period last year. Still, Italy’s PCI among travelers remains at a generally high level, having returned to the range observed in previous years.
“While individual heatwaves have triggered relatively moderate short-term reactions [among travelers], repeated exposure to extreme temperatures appears to be starting to weigh on the overall evolution of travelers’ climate perceptions,” says the report.
Spain and Greece remain resilient, but highly responsive to extreme heat.
Both Spain and Greece show pronounced short-term PCI fluctuations during heatwaves, particularly when extreme conditions arrive early or persist, the report says.
Spain's overall summer climate perception among globetrotters remains strong, averaging 87.2 since 2023, while Greece maintains an average of 89.2, although its 2026 performance is softer than in previous years.
Portugal shows how climate expectations can build resilience.
With an average PCI of 91.1 across the summers analyzed, Portugal records some of the most stable climate perceptions in the region, the report found.
“The relative normalization of warmer summer conditions appears to reduce sensitivity to heat, while even a major 33.5-point drop during an exceptional September 2025 heatwave proved temporary,” says the report. “This highlights a key finding of the analysis: traveler expectations matter almost as much as temperatures themselves.”
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